The Rise of the Brexit Party

So, Theresa May is quitting, and still the Brexit monster lumbers on, devouring all in its path. But, as has been pointed out elsewhere, changing the PM doesn't change the fundamental problem - Brexit is impossible to deliver as promised.

Reconciling the Irreconcilable

For the past 3 years, Parliament has been been trying, and failing, to reconcile two irreconcilable things following on from the Brexit referendum:

1. The UK is a democracy, and so if the population vote for something to happen, it should happen.
2. Parliament and the Government should guarantee the future prosperity of the country.

The fundamental problem, among others, is that the population voted for something that is highly likely to damage the future prosperity of the country. It is like the country voting for something that, it turns out, would fire 25% of the population. Politicians generally have had 3 responses to this:

1. Find a way to work round the consequences of the vote to reduce or eliminate the potential for damage
2. Follow the requirements of the vote, even if it causes significant damage to the country and to people's lives
3. Ignore the problem, and continue to insist it is possible to leave the EU without economic damage

However, no one is really addressing the solutions to resolve the problem, and no one is saying what needs to be said - there is no good way out of this situation. There are several ways to resolve the current situation, now that TM's deal is dead (note I'm ignoring other possibilities like a General Election; that still doesn't resolve the core problem):

1. Revoke Article 50 outright
2. Have a referendum on the terms of leaving the EU
3. Leave with no agreed deal

All of these are bad outcomes. The first and second are going against the Brexit result, either implicitly or explicitly, and so breaking people's trust in the current political system. The third will set back the country's economic development by decades, will cause thousands to lose their jobs, and will likely cause deaths due to lack of medicines and chaos at the border in getting critical materials into the country.

I, personally, think the way out is a referendum on terms of leaving the EU, hopefully resulting in revocation. But it still is a bad outcome, and will have very serious consequences for the political system for many years to come. I just wish politicians advocating for a referendum acknowledge the problems that will be caused.

Perhaps an analogy is in order. We have been coaxed into a prison, and the only way out is a very small hole. It is possible for us to fit through the hole and escape, but only by removing an arm (work with me here). There are some that are advocating keeping the left arm (following the referendum result), and some that we keep the right arm (not screwing over the economy). Either side is, rightfully, horrified - think of all the things we do with that arm! You're advocating we chop off one of our arms? Are you mad? We need that arm!

However, the reality of the situation is that, regardless of our choice, we are going to lose one of our arms. That will have serious consequences that we will have to deal with. The only thing to decide is which is more important? Which consequence is less bad - setting the economy of the country back 30 years, or fatally damaging people's trust in the current political system?

The rise of No Deal and the Brexit Party

Part of the problem is the polarisation between the different options in the past few months. Before the referendum, hardly anyone was saying that leaving without a deal was even a possibility, but that has now gone completely the other way. Now, any deal that concedes anything to the EU is seen as 'not a proper Brexit', and not following the referendum result.

The reasons for this can be traced all the way back to before the referendum - leaving the EU, and negotiating a deal, was portrayed as easy ('the easiest trade deal in history' anyone?). Furthermore, thanks to 40 years of anti-EU media propaganda, the referendum was subject to a strong protest vote that resulted in people pinning their wishes for the future on the UK leaving the EU. It was possible, it will be easy, it will solve all our problems. Whether the politicians peddling these lies actually believed themselves is another matter, but a lot of people, through no fault of their own, believed them.

But, as the sheer scale of the work required to leave the EU without damaging the economy became clearer, instead of admitting their mistake and reevaluating the situation, the Brexiteer politicians doubled down - the delays were due to Remainers trying to sabotage the negotiations, it was all due to EU intransigence, etc. The result of this was to close down the option of leaving with the 'easy deal' that they promised, as it was clearly 'sabotaged'. The only place to go then, was to leave the EU with no deal.

Throughout this process, people continued to pin their hopes for an improvement in their situation on leaving the EU, to such an extent that it became part of their identity, part of who they are ('We need to leave the EU'). At that stage, it becomes very difficult to change people's minds, as to consider not leaving the EU is to challenge one of the fundamental baseis of their self-identity. It challenges who they are as a person.

The rise of the Brexit Party follows on from this. It has no policies, no ideas, no plans, other than 'WE MUST LEAVE THE EU'. This connects with people at a deep emotional level, as it provides an outlet for their self-identity. It then becomes very difficult to move away from that.

So what now?

The consequence of this is that, whether we leave the EU or not, the Brexit Party will continue to be the party of choice for those with 'leaving the EU' as a core part of their identity. Because what they want is fundamentally not possible, because politicians they trusted refused to tell them, any future course of action will lead to anger from those who follow the Brexit Party as it will be a 'betrayal of Brexit' or 'not a true Brexit'. The party is already worryingly right-wing, and I fear this will only get worse as reality fails to bow to their will.

However, there are causes for optimism - the country is turning against Brexit, and pro-Remain parties are in the ascendancy. The middle ground of compromise has, unfortunately, been squeezed out. The only question is will the Remain parties be enough to counteract the rising tide of fascism before Brexit runs its course, or will the country slide further into oblivion?